A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
